Let’s Chart – Are there more accidents in the EMBER months?

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Why We L👀ked Into This »🎨 A popular myth exists that the month of September to December, popularly referred to as the ’ember month’ are dangerous for motorists because there are more fatal accidents. Do we really have more accidents during the ember months?

 

Ember to Remember

• EMBER months refer to the last four (4) months of the year. In Nigeria, there is a belief that around these months, the roads are ‘hungry for blood’ and not safe for motorists.
• The Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) which regulates, enforces and coordinates all road traffic and safety management activities in Nigeria often begins a road safety campaign during this period.
• Nigeria has 200,000km of road network nationwide.

 

 

In the last six (6) years;

• Ember months account for at least, 30% road crashes in Nigeria.
• Accidents that occur in the months of January and December are always higher than the monthly average.
• January, December and April tend to feature on top 3 months for road crashes in Nigeria.

 

2019 in Review

In 2019, a general election was conducted in Nigeria in February. Such events tend to affect movement of people leading up to election day.

• Road crashes tend to reduce in one of the ember months before increasing in the month of December.
• There is a connection between festive cum end/new year activities and increase in road crashes for the months of January and December. This may explain why the months of January and December have higher rate of accidents compared to other months.

NOTE: road crashes is the general term used to describe road accidents irrespective of the extent of damage (minor or major).

 

Analyzing the Trend 

For a 6-year period, an analysis was performed to observe road crashes recorded in the ember months.

• 2014 was the only outlier in the 6-year period – there was an 8% increase in road crashes from August to September before the reduction in November.
• Every December, there is always an increase in road crashes leading to January of the following year.
• In 2016, December 22 recorded the most road crashes (46)  for the year and three days later (December 25), the highest number of deaths (57) from road accidents was recorded.

 

Conclusion

• December is a month to watch for in the EMBER months.
• EMBER months do not always translate to an increase in road crashes as there is usually a decrease in accidents in one of the EMBER months.

 

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